Monday, January 10, 2005

Iraq...Getting Better Or Worse?

I believe the numbers reveal a discouraging trend not widely reported:
(from icasualties.org)
Total Wounded
20-Oct-04 thru 26-Oct-04 ---134
27-Oct-04 thru 03-Nov-04 ---137
04-Nov-04 thru 09-Nov-04 ---171
10-Nov-04 thru 16-Nov-04---498
17-Nov-04 thru 23-Nov-04 ---370
24-Nov-04 thru 30-Nov-04 ---226
01-Dec-04 thru 07-Dec-04 ---214
08-Dec-04 thru 14-Dec-04 --- 78
15-Dec-04 thru 22-Dec-04 ---137
23-Dec-04 thru 04-Jan-05 ---271

Actually, the trend seems to be, well, an absense of a trend. The casualty rates seem to follow this also. While there is no steadily increasing rate of killed/wounded (thank God), there is no steady decline in the casualty rates either (thank Bush). What this seems to indicate is that while the US remains embedded in Iraq, we can expect the killing of at least one American platoon per month, and one to three regiments of American troops being wounded every week.

Again, we can expect these rates to remain in effect as long as we retain significant troop presence in Iraq.

One of the justifications for fighting in Iraq, "The Flypaper Theory", seems to be working for the enemies cause as well. Part of reducing our troop presence (and casualties) hinges on the ability of the Iraq forces to police themselves. Small wonder that a large portion of the attacks have been for the purpose of demoralizing the Iraq forces that we have been trying to train. As a result, we are prevented from reducing troop numbers in Iraq. In essence, we are trapped in the same flypaper that we supposedly laid down to catch the enemy in.

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